The Shit List – Week 10

Hey yo, (sniff, sniff) you smell that? Smells pretty shitty in here and by that I mean our first playoff elimination. Oh and another clinch (playoffs, not butt cheeks.. ya sickos). Now that we’re in the double-digit weeks, with just four more to go before playoffs, we’re starting to see the league take shape. I hate to say it but wherever you are in the rankings is likely where you’re going to be come playoff time. The good news is playoffs will be unpredictable. We have some teams getting in with low overall scores this season. We have our first place clinch, Dan, who came two points and two minutes away from losing to the first playoff elimination, Jayden. Anything can happen!

For this week’s soundtrack, I dedicate it to myself and my wife who are now tied record-wise with Dave. However, Dave has a higher PF than we do so the last playoff spot is currently sitting with him. It can be any of the three of us at this point. So, here we are.

Wins & Losses are a Matter of Good and Bad Luck

In terms of Week 10, Team You’re Duned takes the win for the week scoring a total of 158.44 points. Unfortunately for Mahomes Isn’t So Sweet, she played the ONE person who scored more than her this week. Yup. Sarah would have beat any of us but instead, she played Lauren and lost. Talk about bad luck! Sarah just can’t catch a break. In fact, she even managed to lose on her name change! Mahomes took the league’s highest scorer this week after she shit on his name. Perhaps you inspired him.

Taking the big L for the week was The Better Phillips. Actually, in losing this week she really made My Ball Zach Ertz the luckiest guy in the league given that he was the only other double-digit score this week. So, while Sarah would have beat anyone else she played, Paul would have lost to anyone else he played. I think this is the first week the winner and loser have made the best and worst luck team of the week.

Quick side note which may hamper your playoff potential: Team You’re Duned has just shot to the top of the COVID-19 Risk chart with a risk factor of 200/200, the highest yet.

League Standings and Playoff Possibilities

With the season 75% of the way through, I thought we’d take a long, hard look at the playoffs this week and ignore some of the other stuff. So, let’s have a look at the chart below. If you just woke up or you’re dumb, the green means you are currently in the playoffs. The black are those not yet decided, and the red are those eliminated. The bold means, you’ve clinched or secured your elimination. Dan officially clinched when he beat me a week ago. Kelley unofficially clinched when she beat me this week. You’re welcome?

But, Brian.. why is Kelley unofficial if she has 0 wins needed? Well, as Paul pointed out last week in the comments, Kelley has the lowest total points scored this season outside of Jayden (who is now eliminated). This means that if Kelley were to lose three or four out of the last four games, she will end up at the end of the playoff bracket and likely in a tie record. But because everyone else has scored more than her, she would lose that tie. It’s the same situation that Amanda and I are in with Dave right now. We have the same record as him but he holds the 6th playoff spot because he has more points overall.

This upcoming week is gonna be BIG for playoff possibilities. Team Ya Hurd Me, My Ball Zach Ertz, and Team You’re Duned are just one win away from their own clinching. With Caitlin going up against Dan who now has Christian McCaffrey back, this might be a tough one. Although the Rams have a BYE this week so he is without his big scorer, Cooper Kupp.

Paul is going up against Sarah which doesn’t sound all too threatening when you consider Sarah’s record. But when you realize that she had the second-highest score last week while Paul had the second-lowest.. nothing is a given. This game will come down to less than a two-point spread. Guarantee it.

Lauren is going up against me so, umm, she basically clinched already. Given my track record for being letting Dan and Kelley fly right into a clinch, I don’t see that changing anytime soon. In fact, why don’t you just leave half of your team on your bench? Go ahead. I dare ya.

Playoffs

Team Manager Record Playoffs Needed 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th
SuperBowl SuperBears Dan M. 8-2-0 (0.800) 100.00% 0 wins 81.40% 12.20% 3.83% 2.17% 0.40% 0.00%
Crazy Cat Lady Kelley S. 7-3-0 (0.700) 99.09% 0 wins 9.80% 33.16% 22.69% 17.07% 11.90% 4.47%
Team Ya Hurd Me Caitlin H. 6-4-0 (0.600) 98.05% 1 win 5.50% 14.08% 23.04% 25.01% 19.45% 10.96%
My Ball Zach Ertz Paul R. 6-4-0 (0.600) 94.12% 1 win 1.86% 25.49% 26.78% 20.39% 14.65% 4.96%
Team You're Duned Lauren R. 6-4-0 (0.600) 85.43% 1 win 1.43% 14.22% 18.71% 20.34% 15.22% 15.50%
I Touchdown There Dave T. 4-6-0 (0.400) 59.97% 3 wins 0.00% 0.66% 3.08% 7.27% 13.54% 35.42%
Mystic Mooseknuckles Brian P. 4-6-0 (0.400) 31.42% 3 wins 0.00% 0.14% 1.31% 4.69% 16.90% 8.38%
The Better Phillips Amanda P. 4-6-0 (0.400) 25.76% 3 wins 0.00% 0.04% 0.44% 1.77% 4.73% 18.78%
Mahomes Isn't So Sweet Sarah M. 3-7-0 (0.300) 6.16% 4 wins 0.00% 0.01% 0.13% 1.29% 3.22% 1.52%
Jayden RAMSey Jayden P. 2-8-0 (0.200) 0.00% 5 wins 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Head to Head Matchups

Paving your Way to the Playoffs

Mystic Mooseknuckles Crazy Cat Lady
100.58 - 123.24
Ezekiel Elliott (20.76) Best Player Darrel Williams (29.40)
Corrdarrell Patterson (4.90) Worst Player AJ Brown (3.30)
115.62 Optimal Score 139.34

Game Comments: I was cruising along on the projections all week. I went to bed Sunday projected to win by 10%. I felt good. I woke up with a projected win of 2%. I felt bad. On my end, Matt Stafford is one of the best quarterbacks in the league… until he has to play a primetime game then all of his years in Detroit start coming out. It wasn’t just Stafford that choked. Cordarrelle Patterson went and end up with about 5% of his projected score. Meanwhile, Derek Carr must have forgotten Darren Waller is even on his team. Massive choke from some of the league’s best players. On Kelley’s end – honestly nothing spectacular aside from Darrel Williams. The man had his best week all season. Didn’t matter much though. My team just underperformed so poorly, Kelley’s team didn’t need much.


Cowboys vs Indians

Mahomes Isn't So Sweet Team You're Duned
128.44 - 158.44
Patrick Mahomes (36.24) Best Player CeeDee Lamb (28.60)
Dawson Knox (2.70) Worst Player David Njoku (2.00)
141.94 Optimal Score 164.24

Game Comments: On one side you have the dominant part of the Cowboys offense and on the other side you have the Chiefs. While these teams didn’t square off on the field this week, they did so between Lauren and Sarah’s fantasy teams. Tough break for Sarah. Mahomes went back to his 2019/2020 days putting up 30+ points and hitting his buddy Tyreek Hill a million times. The downfall of Sarah’s team is that those were the only two standout players with more than 20 pts. The rest had an average to a mediocre game. On Lauren’s side, she had four players with over 20 pts which gave her the win. The Dak and CeeDee Lamb combo went nuts. D’Ernest Johnson whoever the F that is had a great game despite his team getting fisted by the Patriots. Oh, but Lauren had the Patriots D too.


Which is Best: Top or Bottom Bunk?

Jayden RAMSey SuperBowel SuperBears
106.58 - 109.20
Christian McCaffrey (26.10) Best Player Stefon Diggs (30.20)
Dalton Shultz (2.40) Worst Player Russell Gage (0.00)
111.68 Optimal Score 109.20

Game Comments: Geeze Dan. Did ya have to do my boy dirty like that? You already clinched your playoff spot. The kid was finally back into the game thinking he had a win on you and then you skirt in at the finish line with a less than 3 point win and send the kid into final elimination. Jayden’s team put up some solid points given his history of not starting the right players. Unfortunately, that goose egg from Russell Gage put the nail in his coffin. It’s unfortunate too because Jayden actually beat you in the optimal score. Those are the toughest wins when you could have won if you made different sit/start decisions. Tough loss for Jayden and an irrelevant win for Dan.


Close But No Cigar

I Touchdown There Team Ya Hurd Me
124.04 - 126.60
Josh Allen (20.94) Best Player Justin Jefferson (22.90)
Arizona Cardinals (3.00) Worst Player Alvin Kamara (0.00)
129.74 Optimal Score 161.00

Game Comments: A win here from Dave would have given him some breathing room in that last playoff spot. In fact, it even seemed likely in the beginning. Josh Allen went nuts. Alvin Kamara didn’t show up. It could have been! But it wasn’t. Two names you don’t hear very often: DeVonta Smith and Justin Jefferson really balled out on Sunday both with 20+ points along with a strong D from the Panthers. Meanwhile, Dave only had Josh Allen scoring more than 20 points. Many other plays got close. Actually, a decent performance overall, just not enough standout players to get the win, resulting in a 4 point loss.


I Won?! I Really Won!

The Better Phillips My Ball Zack Ertz
79.12 - 97.02
Michael Carter (18.20) Best Player Jonathan Taylor (24.60)
Matt Gay (4.00) Worst Player TJ Hockenson (0.00)
97.52 Optimal Score 106.62

Game Comments: If my estimations are correct, Paul’s record against Amanda going into this week was 0-3 over the course of the last two years. Then Amanda went and tripped over her own d*ck and still came up short, giving the dub to Paul this week. Or, since this was the lowest score for both of you all season, I guess you could say you were playing a different game here and still beat Paul on who could have the lowest score of the season. 0-4? I kid. Truth is, your big guns really failed you this week. Lamar Jackson had a poor performance. Darrell Henderson got hurt early and put up crap. DK Metcalf tried to fight the whole Packers offense and got himself ejected also gave you crap. Dallas Goedert got hurt. Courtland Suttion did about 1/3rd of his projection. When it rains it pours. Paul had the one player across both of your teams with the 20+ which sealed his win. Jonathan Taylor has hit his prime late in the season and he’s killing it.

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